Rogo

The anticipation is high regarding the future of ROGO in the Florida Key. Islamorada has officially exhausted its building allocations. The City of Marathon is set to deplete its allocations by 2025, and the county has slowed its pace, anticipating the end of ROGO in 2026.

Background of Rogo

For those not familiar, the Rate of Growth Ordinance, or ROGO, was established to ensure resident safety during hurricanes. All of the Florida Keys are designated as an Area of State Critical Concern which served to constrict and control new development based on Hurricane Evacuation and provide oversight by the State. A 24-hour maximum evacuation time for residents and a 48-hour evacuation time for transient guests was established in Florida Law.

The Department of Community Affairs, now DEO, monitors evacuation times, reports to the Governor, and awards building permits every decade. The latest tranche, awarded in 2013, expires on June 31, 2023.

New Study for Rogo

Currently, a new evacuation study is underway, and indications from prior research suggest that the 24-hour evacuation time might have been exceeded. If this holds true, it is widely recognized that the Florida Legislature would need to enact fresh legislation, extending the evacuation period to facilitate the issuance of more residential building permits.

Past evacuation models suggest that extending the evacuation time to at least 30 hours would be necessary to meet the demand for residential dwelling unit permits, allowing for the construction of homes on the approximately 8000 estimated buildable lots in the Keys.

5 Scenarios

The DEO presented the County and Keys’ Cities with five scenarios, spanning from a complete halt on residential building permits to the potential allocation of permits for nearly all of the estimated 8000 buildable lots.

Balancing these diverse interests and formulating a plan acceptable to Legislators in Tallahassee presents a formidable challenge. The ongoing development raises environmental concerns, with arguments suggesting that the Keys have exceeded their environmental and biological carrying capacity. This is evident in the decline of fish stocks, coral bleaching, water quality loss, and eutrophication. The addition of complexities arises from the need to expand evacuation times, address sea level rise, and tackle traffic issues.

On the other hand, restricting property owners from building might necessitate the government purchasing lots at fair market value, potentially incurring costs amounting to billions and placing a burden on local taxpayers.

The Response

The County responded to DEO by requesting a postponement of any action until the 2025 Legislative Session.

Educated Guess for Rogo

Here’s what could unfold after plenty of discussions, debates, and careful consideration of the far-reaching impacts of the two extreme scenarios on the table.

It is likely that more residential permits will be allocated by the State in the next three years to avert taking cases and that the rate of permits being awarded to property owners will be at or below current levels.

To accommodate more permits the evacuation times established for residents will have to be increased from the current 24 hours. If that time is increased to about 30 hours there would potentially be enough permits available to build almost 8000 new homes on all of the buildable lands remaining in the Keys.

It will take many years to provide for all of the infrastructure necessary to support new residential units including expanded and improved roads, central sewer, stormwater, along with increased potable water and electric capacity as well as the work force housing necessary to support these new units.

As a result, whatever new allocations that are issued will likely be metered out over possibly decades as the infrastructure is put in place.

Should the Legislature choose to extend evacuation times, the subsequent allocation of new residential dwelling units would fall under the purview of the Governor and Cabinet.  Local jurisdictions would then play a pivotal role in determining housing ratios and ownership preferences, further contributing to the intricacy of the balancing act.

Those property owners whose use of their land is ‘taken’ by regulation can petition government to compensate them for the loss of use of their property.

The future of ROGO in the Florida Keys remains intricate and subject to ongoing discussions and decisions.

Amy Prumo

Amy’s success as a Florida Keys Elite Agent and Diamond Award Winner is truly awe-inspiring. With over a decade of experience in the real estate industry, she has cemented her position as a trailblazer and pioneer. Her unwavering commitment to excellence is reflected in her impressive academic credentials, which include a Master’s Degree in Marketing and Management. Amy’s marketing programs are simply unmatched, ensuring that your property is showcased to the widest audience of potential buyers, thus guaranteeing maximum exposure.